Track record · closed signal

The Coca-Cola Company (KO) — closed signal from September 4, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 3, 2025 — +3.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

KO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$68.27 Published $74.68 Target $70.81 Window close $72.91 Peak
$66.52 – $67.30Entry zone — fair-value band
$68.27Published — price the day we called it
$74.68Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$72.91Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$70.81Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 62% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+3.7%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+6.8%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$70.81
last close inside the window, ended December 3, 2025
Peak price
$72.91
peak on December 1, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published September 4, 2025

Predicted growth
+11%
over the measurement window
Target price
$74.68
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$66.52 – $67.30
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$68.27
published September 4, 2025
Confidence
64%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Coca-Cola looks like a safer, steady stock while the drink industry faces some challenges this week. The price is not stretched, and steady demand, brand strength, and the ability to nudge prices higher suggest a gentle climb, especially if interest rates ease. Current momentum is only middling, so wait for clearer strength before adding. Over the next 3 months, expect modest gains with calmer swings than jumpier stocks.

Primary drivers

  • Famous brands let Coke nudge prices up without losing many customers.
  • Investors favor steady companies when the economy feels shaky today.
  • People keep buying drinks year-round, giving Coke reliable sales.
  • Lower interest rates can lift dependable household-goods companies.

How it played out

KO: target stayed out of reach

Lyra published KO on 2025-09-04 at 68.27, with 11% expected growth and a 74.68 target. The thesis pointed to famous brands, steady year-round drink demand, room to nudge prices higher, investor preference for steadier companies, and possible help from lower interest rates. It also said momentum was only middling.

Inside the 2025-09-04 to 2025-12-03 window, KO rose but did not reach the target. The peak was 72.91 on 2025-12-01, a 6.8% gain. It ended at 70.81. The thesis partially played out because the stock climbed, but it stayed below the target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-21, Coca-Cola reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of 0.82 per share on 12.46 billion in revenue. The same day, reports said Coca-Cola announced a 2.6 billion deal to sell a majority stake in Coca-Cola Beverages Africa.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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