Track record · closed signal

The AES Corporation (AES) — closed signal from July 6, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 4, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

AES price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$11.22 Published $12.57 Target $14.40 Window close $15.32 Peak
$10.44 – $10.73Entry zone — fair-value band
$11.22Published — price the day we called it
$12.57Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$15.32Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$14.40Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 3 days.

Peak price
$15.32
peak on October 1, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+36.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$14.40
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
3
Window
July 6, 2025 – October 4, 2025

The thesis — published July 6, 2025

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$12.57
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$10.44 – $10.73
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$11.22
published July 6, 2025
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

AES finally pushed past the $11 price ceiling for the first time in a decade, with far more shares trading than usual, showing strong new interest. A 50-50 deal with TotalEnergies lowers risk and brings cash for Caribbean projects, while an extended hydrogen tax break improves profits on future green plants. The price could pause soon, so buying around $11-11.30 may set up a run to $13.70-14 by late summer, helped by an August project update.

Primary drivers

  • Jump above $11 with strong trading activity hints the upward trend is starting.
  • Half-and-half deal with TotalEnergies cuts risk and funds 10 GW of Caribbean projects.
  • Longer hydrogen tax credit should make the companys future green plants more profitable.
  • Steady utility status is sought in a weak market, and strong demand readings back interest.

How it played out

AES: target reached in 3 days

Lyra published AES at $11.22 on 2025-07-06 with 15% expected growth and a $12.57 target. The thesis pointed to a move above $11 with strong trading activity, a half-and-half TotalEnergies deal tied to 10 GW of Caribbean projects, a longer hydrogen tax credit, and steady utility demand in a weak market.

Inside the window, AES reached the target in 3 days. The stock later peaked at $15.32 on 2025-10-01, with a 36.5% peak gain. It ended the window at $14.40. The thesis played out, and the move went beyond the published target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-01, Investopedia reported that AES shares rose after a report said the company was in advanced talks to be acquired by BlackRock's Global Infrastructure Partners. AES told Investopedia that it did not respond to market rumors.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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