Track record · closed signal

Aris Water Solutions, Inc. (ARIS) — closed signal from September 4, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 3, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

ARIS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$23.78 Published $26.63 Target $23.69 Window close $24.90 Peak
$23.00 – $23.80Entry zone — fair-value band
$23.78Published — price the day we called it
$26.63Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$24.90Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$23.69Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 39% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$24.90
peak on September 26, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+4.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$23.69
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 4, 2025 – December 3, 2025

The thesis — published September 4, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$26.63
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$23.00 – $23.80
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$23.78
published September 4, 2025
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Aris is mainly a deal trade. The company agreed to be bought by Western Midstream for $25 in cash or units, so the stock tends to drift toward that price from today's level. Lately there has been more buying than usual, which helps steady the price. A shareholder law review adds uncertainty that could change the terms. Over the next three months, modest gains are likely if the deal stays on track, but stay alert to updates that could quickly move the price.

Primary drivers

  • Sale to Western Midstream sets a near-term price guide around $25.
  • Price was weak, but buying interest now looks stronger than before.
  • If the deal advances, the gap between the stock and $25 may shrink.
  • Shareholder legal review could alter timing or terms, adding risk.

How it played out

ARIS: modest gain, target not reached

Lyra published ARIS at $23.78 on September 4, 2025, with expected growth of 12%. The thesis pointed to the agreed sale to Western Midstream, a near-term price guide around $25, stronger buying interest, and a shareholder legal review that could affect timing or terms.

Inside the window, ARIS rose to a peak of $24.90 on September 26, 2025, a 4.7% gain. It stayed below the $26.63 target and never reached it. The window ended on December 3, 2025, at $23.69. The thesis partially played out, but the published target missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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