Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) — closed signal from September 3, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 2, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 36 days.
The thesis — published September 3, 2025
Gold prices are near records, which helps Harmony earn more on each ounce it sells. The latest yearly report was strong, with profit up 75% and sales up 24%. Costs per ounce rose 20% to $1,806, so profits depend on keeping costs in check and gold staying high. Interest in the stock is solid, so buying on dips can work, but keep positions modest because gold and costs can swing over the next few months.
Primary drivers
- Near-record gold prices lift money made per ounce, helping profit margins
- Latest yearly results looked strong, with profits and sales moving higher
- Investor interest is firm, with more buying than usual supporting the stock
- Rising mining costs could pressure profits if gold cools or stays choppy
How it played out
HMY: target reached in 36 days
Lyra published HMY at $15.20 on 2025-09-03, with expected growth of 28% over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to near-record gold prices, stronger yearly results with profit up 75% and sales up 24%, firm investor interest, and the risk that costs per ounce, at $1,806, could pressure profits.
Inside the window, HMY reached the $19.39 target in 36 days. It peaked at $22.25 on 2025-10-16, with a 46.3% peak gain, then ended at $19.21 on 2025-12-02. The thesis played out. The target was reached, and the peak moved above it.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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