Track record · closed signal

Campbell Soup Company (CPB) — closed signal from September 3, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 2, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

CPB price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$30.30 – $30.97Entry zone — fair-value band

$31.62Published — price the day we called it

$33.84Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$33.25Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$29.45Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 52% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$33.25

peak on September 24, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+5.2%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$29.45

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

September 3, 2025 – December 2, 2025

The thesis — published September 3, 2025

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$33.84

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$30.30 – $30.97

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$31.62

published September 3, 2025

Confidence

63%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Campbell's stock fell after a mixed update: on 2025-09-03 it beat profit estimates for Q4, but warned that new tariffs could cause most of a 12-18% drop in earnings for FY26. That shock may be calming, so a short-term bounce toward prior price areas is possible. Main risks are how long tariffs last and whether shoppers trade down. Start small and add only if buyers clearly return or the price regains its recent average.

Primary drivers

Well-known pantry brands could rebound after a sharp slide in the share price.
Quarter beat profit estimates, showing operations still executing well.
New tariffs may cut FY26 earnings 12-18%, pressuring the near-term outlook.
Recent trading shows more buying interest, helping a possible short-term lift.

How it played out

CPB: target was not reached

Lyra published CPB at 31.62 on 2025-09-03 with a short-term bounce thesis and expected growth of 10%. The thesis pointed to well-known pantry brands, a quarter that beat profit estimates, pressure from new tariffs that may cut FY26 earnings 12-18%, and recent buying interest after a sharp slide.

Inside the window, CPB rose to a peak of 33.25 on 2025-09-24, a 5.2% gain. It stayed below the 33.84 target. By 2025-12-02, it ended at 29.45. The thesis partially played out, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-09-03, Campbell's reported fourth-quarter results and gave fiscal 2026 guidance that included tariff pressure. On 2025-11-25, reports said a lawsuit alleged offensive comments by a Campbell's executive, and Campbell's said the comments did not reflect its values.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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