Track record · closed signal

HealthEquity, Inc. (HQY) — closed signal from September 3, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 2, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

HQY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$93.63 Published $115.17 Target $98.88 Window close $105.96 Peak
$91.50 – $94.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$93.63Published — price the day we called it
$115.17Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$105.96Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$98.88Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 57% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$105.96
peak on November 25, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+13.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$98.88
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 3, 2025 – December 2, 2025

The thesis — published September 3, 2025

Predicted growth
+23%
over the measurement window
Target price
$115.17
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$91.50 – $94.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$93.63
published September 3, 2025
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

HealthEquity raised its sales and profit targets for fiscal 2026, which lifted confidence. A 2025-09-02 update also showed faster growth in health savings accounts and new AI tools. Trading shows lots more people are buying than usual. If the price drifts toward its recent average price, that can be a buying chance. Key near-term risk: money earned on customer cash could fall if interest rates drop.

Primary drivers

  • Raised 2026 sales and profit targets, lifting confidence in future growth
  • Stronger buying interest than usual, with higher-than-normal trading volume
  • Rising use of health savings accounts; new AI tools improve the service
  • Earnings from customer cash shrink if overall interest rates decline

How it played out

HQY: the target was not reached

Lyra published HQY on September 3, 2025 at $93.63. The thesis expected 23% growth toward $115.17. It pointed to raised fiscal 2026 sales and profit targets, stronger buying interest with higher-than-normal volume, rising use of health savings accounts, and new artificial intelligence tools. It also named lower earnings from customer cash as the main near-term risk if interest rates fell.

Inside the September 3 to December 2 window, HQY rose but did not reach the target. The peak was $105.96 on November 25, with a 13.2% gain. It stayed below $115.17. The stock ended at $98.88. The thesis partially played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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