Track record · closed signal

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from July 6, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 4, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

PLTR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$134.36 Published $174.67 Target $173.07 Window close $190.00 Peak
$128.00 – $136.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$134.36Published — price the day we called it
$174.67Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$190.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$173.07Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 30 days.

Peak price
$190.00
peak on August 12, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+41.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$173.07
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
30
Window
July 6, 2025 – October 4, 2025

The thesis — published July 6, 2025

Predicted growth
+30%
over the measurement window
Target price
$174.67
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$128.00 – $136.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$134.36
published July 6, 2025
Confidence
75%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Palantir’s share price has dropped 22 %, moving back to $128-$136 where it often finds buyers. Trading volume was almost triple the norm on the way down, hinting many worried investors have already sold. New U.S. Health and U.K. Defense deals and upbeat talk about its AI tools keep optimism high. In similar cases the stock later rose 12-15 %, so $145-$150 over the next two months looks possible.

Primary drivers

  • 3x normal trading on the sell-off hints panic is over and buyers are stepping in.
  • New U.S. Health and U.K. Defense deals add fresh revenue and positive news flow.
  • Investors remain upbeat despite low profits thanks to excitement about AI.
  • Buyers have appeared near $128-$136 before, helping keep possible losses small.

How it played out

PLTR: target reached in 30 days

Lyra published PLTR at $134.36 on 2025-07-06, with 30% expected growth and a $174.67 target. The thesis pointed to buyers returning near $128-$136 after a 22% drop, trading volume at almost triple the norm, new U.S. Health and U.K. Defense deals, and optimism around artificial intelligence tools.

Inside the window, PLTR reached a $190 peak on 2025-08-12, above the target. It got there in 30 days. The peak gain was 41.4%. By 2025-10-04, it ended at $173.07, below the target but still above the publication price. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-08-04, Palantir reported second-quarter revenue of $1 billion, up 48% year over year, and raised its full-year revenue outlook. On 2025-07-08, The Guardian reported a public dispute in the U.K. over Palantir's NHS data work.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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