Hess Midstream LP (HESM) — closed signal from September 3, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 2, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 6% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 3, 2025
Hess Midstream looks like a steady, lower-drama pick. Recent company updates were positive, plus a $100M plan to buy back units and expected volumes tied to Guyana help make future cash flows easier to see. The price had been weak but is starting to firm up, with the recent average price turning higher and lots more people buying than usual. Main near-term risks: higher interest rates lowering income appeal, and any project delays.
Primary drivers
- Improved outlook and a $100M buyback show confidence and support the price.
- Fee-based contracts make future volumes and cash flows more predictable.
- Price weakness appears to be easing as trends stabilize and buyers return.
- Rising rates could dull income appeal compared with other options.
How it played out
HESM: target was not reached
Lyra published HESM on 2025-09-03 at $40.31. The thesis expected 12% growth and a move toward $44.14. It pointed to an improved outlook, a $100M unit buyback, fee-based contracts, easing price weakness, and buyers returning. It also named rising rates as a risk to income appeal.
Inside the window from 2025-09-03 to 2025-12-02, HESM peaked at $40.57 on 2025-09-04, a 0.7% gain. It stayed below the $44.14 target. The signal ended at $33.19. The published thesis did not play out in price terms.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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