Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from September 3, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 2, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$92.00 – $94.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$93.70Published — price the day we called it

$112.44Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$101.99Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$87.57Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 44% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$101.99

peak on September 22, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+8.8%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$87.57

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

September 3, 2025 – December 2, 2025

The thesis — published September 3, 2025

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$112.44

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$92.00 – $94.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$93.70

published September 3, 2025

Confidence

76%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber appears positioned for another leg higher. New rules in Canada and California should lower insurance costs for drivers, which can ease rider prices and lift trip demand. Earnings per share rose 151%, and free cash flow is improving. Buzz is strong, and dips toward the recent average price keep drawing buyers. If buying interest increases again, the next quarter could bring further gains. Execution has been solid across the business.

Primary drivers

Rule changes may cut insurance costs, letting Uber offer lower prices.
Earnings per share rising and free cash flow trending higher over time.
Shares looked beaten down and now seem to be stabilizing after weakness.
Investor mood is upbeat, with steady interest from buyers on pullbacks.

How it played out

UBER: early gain faded before target

Lyra published UBER at $93.70 on Sep 3, 2025, with an entry zone of $92 to $94 and expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to rule changes in Canada and California that may cut insurance costs, stronger earnings per share, improving free cash flow, stabilization after weakness, and buyers returning on pullbacks.

Inside the window, UBER rose to $101.99 on Sep 22, a peak gain of 8.8%. It stayed below the $112.44 target and never reached it. By Dec 2, it ended at $87.57. The thesis only partially played out: there was an early move higher, but not enough to hit the target, and the signal closed below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On Nov. 4, 2025, Uber reported third-quarter revenue of $13.47 billion and trips of 3.5 billion. On Nov. 26, 2025, Uber and WeRide launched fully driverless robotaxi operations in Abu Dhabi.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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