Track record · closed signal

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) — closed signal from July 1, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 29, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

ORCL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$217.79 Published $249.49 Target $282.27 Window close $345.12 Peak
$206.40 – $212.36Entry zone — fair-value band
$217.79Published — price the day we called it
$249.49Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$345.12Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$282.27Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 16 days.

Peak price
$345.12
peak on September 10, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+58.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$282.27
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
16
Window
July 1, 2025 – September 29, 2025

The thesis — published July 1, 2025

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$249.49
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$206.40 – $212.36
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$217.79
published July 1, 2025
Confidence
64%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Oracle just announced a giant $30 billion-a-year cloud deal and is spending heavily on AI, pushing the stock to record highs as buying interest is extremely strong. Because profits lag these investments, the price may slide toward about $212, near its recent average price, creating a possible entry point. A big company event in September could confirm stronger future sales and help the shares move toward $240 this quarter.

Primary drivers

  • A $30 billion yearly cloud contract greatly increases future order book.
  • The stock is very hot, yet short-term signals suggest waiting for a pullback.
  • A top score on a screening model is attracting rule-based investment funds.
  • September CloudWorld event could lead the company to raise its long-term outlook.

How it played out

ORCL: target reached in 16 days

Lyra published ORCL at $217.79 on 2025-07-01 with 15% expected growth. The thesis pointed to a $30 billion yearly cloud contract, heavy spending on artificial intelligence, strong buying interest, a possible pullback toward about $212, rule-based fund interest, and a September CloudWorld event that could support a stronger long-term sales outlook.

Inside the window, the stock reached the $249.49 target in 16 days. It kept rising and peaked at $345.12 on 2025-09-10, a 58.5% gain. By 2025-09-29, it ended at $282.27. The thesis played out and then went well past the target.

What happened during the window

On September 9, 2025, Oracle reported fiscal first-quarter results and a $455 billion remaining performance obligation total. On September 22, 2025, Oracle appointed Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia as co-CEOs, while Safra Catz moved to executive vice chair.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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