Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) — closed signal from July 6, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 4, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 75 days.
The thesis — published July 6, 2025
The price of gold fell after cease-fire news, bringing Harmony back near 14 dollars, an area where it has held up well before. Trading now shows more buyers than sellers and market mood is very upbeat while the company’s core numbers stay solid. Managers still expect to hit next year’s production goals and a new 1.03 billion-dollar copper deal could add income. Strong mid-year gold demand could lift the stock to 15.80-16.20 within three months.
Primary drivers
- A well-tested 14 dollar floor plus extra buying activity hint shares may climb soon.
- Very optimistic market mood and falling costs boost chances of higher profits.
- Buying the copper project would add a new product and could make the firm valued higher.
- Gold normally does well July-Sept; higher metal price would flow straight to earnings.
How it played out
HMY: target reached in 75 days
Lyra published HMY at 14.31 on 2025-07-06. The thesis expected 14% growth and pointed to a well-tested 14 dollar floor, extra buying activity, upbeat market mood, falling costs, production goals, the 1.03 billion-dollar copper deal, and normal July-Sept gold strength. It looked for a move toward 15.80-16.20 within three months.
Inside the window, HMY reached the 16.25 target in 75 days. The peak was 18.87 on 2025-10-02, with a 31.8% peak gain. It ended at 18.11 on 2025-10-04. The thesis played out and went beyond the target.
What happened during the window
On Aug. 28, 2025, Harmony reported fiscal 2025 earnings. WSJ reported earnings per share of $1.27, headline earnings per share of $1.29, gold production of 46,023 kilograms, and adjusted free cash flow of $614 million.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
Share this receipt
A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.
Read the next call before it closes.
This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.