Track record · closed signal

Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMPH) — closed signal from September 2, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 1, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMPH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$29.50 – $31.20Entry zone — fair-value band

$30.60Published — price the day we called it

$38.25Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$31.26Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$27.45Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 9% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$31.26

peak on September 2, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+2.2%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$27.45

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

September 2, 2025 – December 1, 2025

The thesis — published September 2, 2025

Predicted growth

+25%

over the measurement window

Target price

$38.25

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$29.50 – $31.20

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$30.60

published September 2, 2025

Confidence

66%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Amphastar got U.S. approval to sell a copy of an iron treatment and plans to start selling in Q3 2025, which has lifted investor mood. Recent price behavior looks healthy and buying interest seems stronger than usual, and the company is adding factory capacity, which makes future sales easier to see. Because analysts expect sales to be flat and trading is thin, keep positions modest and buy small dips over the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

U.S. approval to sell a generic iron treatment, targeting a Q3 2025 launch.
Recent price action looks healthy and buying interest is stronger than usual.
Expanding manufacturing capacity to support more product and steadier supply.
Trading volume is light, so position sizes should be smaller to manage fills.

How it played out

AMPH: the thesis did not reach its target

Lyra published AMPH at 30.60 on 2025-09-02 for a short-term window ending 2025-12-01. The thesis expected 25% growth to 38.25. It pointed to U.S. approval for a generic iron treatment, a planned Q3 2025 launch, healthier price action, stronger buying interest, added factory capacity, and light trading volume.

Inside the window, AMPH peaked at 31.26 on 2025-09-02, with a peak gain of 2.2%. It never reached 38.25. By 2025-12-01, it ended at 27.45. The published thesis missed the target and did not play out in the measured window.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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