Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from September 2, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 1, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$93.27 Published $111.92 Target $86.57 Window close $101.99 Peak
$90.00 – $94.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$93.27Published — price the day we called it
$111.92Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$101.99Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$86.57Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 47% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$101.99
peak on September 22, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+9.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$86.57
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 2, 2025 – December 1, 2025

The thesis — published September 2, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$111.92
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$90.00 – $94.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$93.27
published September 2, 2025
Confidence
69%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber looks temporarily beaten down but starting to perk up. A nationwide deal to handle Best Buy deliveries could widen its potential customer base and keep users more engaged. A $2B short-term funding program should lower borrowing costs and add flexibility. With sentiment improving and price moves calming, we prefer adding gradually within the stated range for a potential rebound over the next 0-3 months, while noting volatility and regulatory risks.

Primary drivers

  • Best Buy delivery deal grows Uber's potential customer base and retail ties
  • New $2B short-term funding program should reduce borrowing costs
  • Price looks washed out and early momentum is turning up from recent lows
  • Improving investor mood increases odds of a near-term price recovery

How it played out

UBER: early gain faded, target missed

Lyra published UBER at 93.27 on September 2, 2025. The thesis expected 20% growth to 111.92 over the short-term window. It pointed to the Best Buy delivery deal, a $2B short-term funding program, a washed-out price starting to recover, and improving investor mood. It also noted volatility and regulatory risks.

Inside the window, UBER peaked at 101.99 on September 22, a 9.4% gain. That was below the target. It never got there. By December 1, it ended at 86.57. The thesis partially played out early, then missed by the end of the window.

What happened during the window

On November 4, 2025, Uber reported third-quarter trips of 3.5 billion, up 22%, and gross bookings of $49.7 billion, up 21%. It also guided fourth-quarter gross bookings of $52.25 billion to $53.75 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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