Track record · closed signal

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from September 2, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 1, 2025 — -2.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$91.98 – $95.46Entry zone — fair-value band

$94.84Published — price the day we called it

$111.59Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$98.22Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$92.69Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 20% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-2.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+3.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$92.69

last close inside the window, ended December 1, 2025

Peak price

$98.22

peak on November 12, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published September 2, 2025

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$111.59

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$91.98 – $95.46

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$94.84

published September 2, 2025

Confidence

78%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Schwab looks beaten down for reasons that seem temporary, and strong companies like this often bounce back. A major bank now values it at $112, helped by stronger customer money coming in and better profit per dollar held. If long-term interest rates stop jumping around, its interest income and investor confidence can rise. With many sellers likely tapped out, a rebound over the next 0-3 months is reasonable.

Primary drivers

Price looks overly beaten down, making a short-term bounce more likely
More client money arriving and better profits per dollar held ahead
Truist raised its target price to $112, signaling rising confidence
Steady rates can lift interest income and how investors value the stock

How it played out

SCHW: target was not reached

Lyra published SCHW at $94.84 on September 2, 2025, with 18% expected growth over a short-term window. The target was $111.59. The thesis pointed to a beaten-down price, stronger client money arriving, better profits per dollar held, Truist's $112 target, and steadier rates that could help interest income and investor confidence.

Inside the window, SCHW rose to a peak of $98.22 on November 12, a 3.6% gain. It never reached the target. By December 1, it ended at $92.69. The thesis partially played out in direction for a while, but the rebound was far too small and did not hold.

What happened during the window

On October 16, 2025, Charles Schwab reported third-quarter profit of $2.28 billion, adjusted earnings of $1.31 per share, and revenue of $6.14 billion. On November 6, 2025, Schwab announced a deal to buy Forge Global for about $660 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SCHW signals