Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from July 6, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 4, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$159.32 Published $189.57 Target $187.61 Window close $191.04 Peak
$149.97 – $156.96Entry zone — fair-value band
$159.32Published — price the day we called it
$189.57Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$191.04Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$187.61Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 88 days.

Peak price
$191.04
peak on October 2, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+19.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$187.61
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
88
Window
July 6, 2025 – October 4, 2025

The thesis — published July 6, 2025

Predicted growth
+19%
over the measurement window
Target price
$189.57
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$149.97 – $156.96
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$159.32
published July 6, 2025
Confidence
85%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVDA keeps rising because buyers step in when the price nears its recent average. Customers now wait over 36 weeks for H100 chips, and next year’s AI orders already top $600 million, keeping margins above 75 percent. A July 9 tariff story might push shares into $150-$157. The mid-August developer event often lifts the stock 4-5 percent. These points suggest $175-$180 within 90 days; falling under $142 means caution.

Primary drivers

  • Price keeps bouncing off its recent average, showing a steady uptrend.
  • Long wait times and $600M in future AI orders support strong sales and profits.
  • Possible July 9 tariff news may create a short-term dip for buyers.
  • Past developer events in mid-August have lifted the stock about 4-5 percent.

How it played out

NVDA: target reached in 88 days

Lyra published NVDA at $159.32 on 2025-07-06 with 19% expected growth. The thesis pointed to buyers stepping in near the recent average, H100 waits of over 36 weeks, future artificial intelligence orders above $600 million, margins above 75 percent, possible July 9 tariff volatility, and past mid-August developer-event gains of 4-5 percent.

Inside the window, the stock reached $191.04 on 2025-10-02, above the $189.57 target. That happened in 88 days. The peak gain was 19.9%. NVDA ended the window at $187.61, below the peak but still above the publication price. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-08-27, Nvidia reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $46.7 billion. On 2025-09-18, Nvidia and Intel announced a partnership, and Nvidia said it would buy $5 billion of Intel stock at $23.28 per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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