Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) — closed signal from September 2, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 1, 2025 — +38.8% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 20 days.
The thesis — published September 2, 2025
Harmony is a practical gold play to balance a portfolio. Earnings per share rose 30% compared to last year, and MAC Copper investors approved the buyout, adding future resources. Costs are running higher, which is a key risk. Buying interest is firm even though the recent average price and some chart signals look weak, setting up a snap-back. If gold holds and the deal progresses, a 0-3 month bounce is likely.
Primary drivers
- Gold prices are firm and earnings per share rose 30% compared to last year
- MAC Copper deal adds more future copper and gold resources to the company
- Price looks beaten down, setting up a possible short-term rebound
- Rising mining costs threaten margins and need close, ongoing monitoring
How it played out
HMY: target reached in 20 days
Lyra published HMY at $13.91 on 2025-09-02 with expected growth of 27%. The target was $17.60. The thesis pointed to firm gold prices, earnings per share up 30% compared to last year, the MAC Copper buyout adding future copper and gold resources, and a beaten-down price that could rebound. It also named rising mining costs as the key risk.
Inside the window from 2025-09-02 to 2025-12-01, HMY reached the target in 20 days. It later peaked at $22.25 on 2025-10-16, a 59.9% gain. It ended at $19.32. The thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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