Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) — closed signal from September 2, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 1, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 20 days.
The thesis — published September 2, 2025
Harmony is a practical gold play to balance a portfolio. Earnings per share rose 30% compared to last year, and MAC Copper investors approved the buyout, adding future resources. Costs are running higher, which is a key risk. Buying interest is firm even though the recent average price and some chart signals look weak, setting up a snap-back. If gold holds and the deal progresses, a 0-3 month bounce is likely.
Primary drivers
- Gold prices are firm and earnings per share rose 30% compared to last year
- MAC Copper deal adds more future copper and gold resources to the company
- Price looks beaten down, setting up a possible short-term rebound
- Rising mining costs threaten margins and need close, ongoing monitoring
How it played out
HMY: target reached in 20 days
Lyra published HMY at $13.91 on 2025-09-02 with expected growth of 27%. The target was $17.60. The thesis pointed to firm gold prices, earnings per share up 30% compared to last year, the MAC Copper buyout adding future copper and gold resources, and a beaten-down price that could rebound. It also named rising mining costs as the key risk.
Inside the window from 2025-09-02 to 2025-12-01, HMY reached the target in 20 days. It later peaked at $22.25 on 2025-10-16, a 59.9% gain. It ended at $19.32. The thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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