Track record · closed signal

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) — closed signal from September 1, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 30, 2025 — +7.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

UNH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$292.31 – $302.05Entry zone — fair-value band

$305.87Published — price the day we called it

$335.13Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$378.46Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$327.57Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 8 days.

At window close

+7.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+23.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$327.57

last close inside the window, ended November 30, 2025

Peak price

$378.46

peak on October 28, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published September 1, 2025

Predicted growth

+11%

over the measurement window

Target price

$335.13

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$292.31 – $302.05

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$305.87

published September 1, 2025

Confidence

60%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

UnitedHealth looks strong, but the price has run up fast in the short term. Berkshire Hathaway buying $1.5b worth in Q2 2025 signals smart-money confidence. Some headlines still mention costs tied to loans after a cyberattack, which can weigh on mood. We prefer patience: look to buy on dips within the range instead of paying up. Over the next 3 months, its size and quality should help if the market stays calm.

Primary drivers

Berkshire's purchase signals experienced investors believe in the business.
Recent strength was rapid; a short breather could set up better entries.
Huge size and trusted brand make earnings steadier than many rivals.
Lingering loan costs from the cyberattack may still worry some investors.

How it played out

UNH: target reached in 8 days

Lyra published UNH at 305.87 on 2025-09-01 with 11% expected growth and a 335.13 target. The thesis pointed to Berkshire Hathaway's Q2 2025 purchase, recent rapid strength that could need a breather, the company's size and brand, and lingering loan costs from the cyberattack that could still weigh on mood.

Inside the window, UNH reached the target in 8 days. It later peaked at 378.46 on 2025-10-28, with a 23.7% peak gain. By 2025-11-30, it ended at 327.57, below the target. Verdict: the thesis played out, though the final price gave back part of the move.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-28, UnitedHealth reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of 2.92 per share and revenue of 113.16 billion. It also raised its full-year adjusted earnings outlook to at least 16.25 per share. On 2025-11-18, Reuters reported that former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb joined UnitedHealth Group's board.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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