Walmart Inc. (WMT) — closed signal from September 1, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 30, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 43 days.
The thesis — published September 1, 2025
Walmart is a strong retailer whose stock has dropped more than usual, which often leads to a bounce toward more typical levels. It has beaten the market over the last five years, proving steady execution. Trade tensions could squeeze profits, so buying near the lower end of its recent range and keeping downside small fits a 3-month trade. Recent trading shows buyers are still engaged.
Primary drivers
- Price fell sharply and may rebound toward its usual level soon in coming weeks
- Has beaten the market over 5 years, shows steady execution and solid results
- Investors seeking bargains often choose Walmart in uncertain times
- Tariffs could hurt, but Walmart's size helps reduce the impact on profits
How it played out
WMT: target reached in 43 days
Lyra published WMT on 2025-09-01 at 96.78 with expected growth of 11% over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to a sharp price drop that could rebound toward a more usual level, five-year market outperformance, bargain demand in uncertain times, and Walmart's scale as a buffer against tariff pressure.
Inside the 2025-09-01 to 2025-11-30 window, the stock reached the 107.21 target in 43 days. It later peaked at 110.47 on 2025-11-28, a 14.1% gain, and ended at 110.29. The thesis played out. It got there and stayed above the target at the end.
What happened during the window
On 2025-11-14, Walmart said Doug McMillon would retire in January 2026 and John Furner would become CEO on February 1. On 2025-11-20, Walmart reported third-quarter revenue of $179.5 billion and raised its full-year outlook.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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