Track record · closed signal

The Coca-Cola Company (KO) — closed signal from September 1, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 30, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

KO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$67.99 Published $73.70 Target $72.61 Window close $72.72 Peak
$66.04 – $67.49Entry zone — fair-value band
$67.99Published — price the day we called it
$73.70Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$72.72Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$72.61Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 70% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$72.72
peak on November 28, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$72.61
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 1, 2025 – November 30, 2025

The thesis — published September 1, 2025

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$73.70
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$66.04 – $67.49
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$67.99
published September 1, 2025
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Coke looks like a steady stock to build slowly. A new global Star Wars AR campaign can spark attention and sales, while the company's long record of raising its dividend (63 years) and strong cash generation add support. Even if recent price action has been soft, the mix of brand strength and marketing could nudge shares higher over the next 3 months. Buy on dips in $68.00-$69.50 to get a better trade-off.

Primary drivers

  • Reliable dividend that has been raised for 63 years attracts income
  • New global Star Wars promo could lift drink sales and brand buzz
  • Stable cash coming in even when markets are bumpy supports the stock
  • Recent price action suggests momentum could be turning upward soon

How it played out

KO: shares rose but the target was not reached

Lyra published KO at $67.99 on 2025-09-01 with expected growth of 10%. The thesis pointed to a steady dividend record of 63 years, strong cash generation, a global Star Wars promotion, and the chance that recent soft price action could turn upward.

Inside the window, KO rose but did not reach the $73.70 target. The peak was $72.72 on 2025-11-28, with a peak gain of 7%. It ended at $72.61 on 2025-11-30. The thesis partially played out. The stock moved in the expected direction, but it never got there.

What happened during the window

On October 21, 2025, Coca-Cola reported third-quarter results. AP reported that sales of premium beverages and mini cans helped the quarter. On the same date, AP reported that Coca-Cola was selling a 75% stake in Coca-Cola Beverages Africa to Coca-Cola HBC AG for $2.55 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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