Track record · closed signal

Bilibili Inc. (BILI) — closed signal from September 1, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 30, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

BILI price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$23.26 Published $30.70 Target $26.61 Window close $32.50 Peak
$22.75 – $23.75Entry zone — fair-value band
$23.26Published — price the day we called it
$30.70Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$32.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$26.61Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 38 days.

Peak price
$32.50
peak on October 29, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+39.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$26.61
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
38
Window
September 1, 2025 – November 30, 2025

The thesis — published September 1, 2025

Predicted growth
+32%
over the measurement window
Target price
$30.70
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$22.75 – $23.75
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$23.26
published September 1, 2025
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Bilibili looks sold off but is starting to recover as profits return. Q2 2025 beat earnings per share by 19%, mobile games grew 60.1%, and a US$116.4m share buyback shows management confidence. After a recent drop, the price could rebound over the next three months. Risks include execution and the wider China economy, so consider buying in steps in the stated range.

Primary drivers

  • Back to making profits in Q2, a clear sign the turnaround is real and working
  • Strong growth in mobile games and ads, adding meaningful revenue and momentum
  • US$116.4m share buyback finished, a clear show of confidence from management
  • Recent selling pushed price down, creating a friendlier entry for a rebound

How it played out

BILI: target reached in 38 days

Lyra published BILI at $23.26 on 2025-09-01 with a short-term thesis for 32% expected growth. The thesis pointed to Q2 profit recovery, earnings per share beating by 19%, mobile games growth of 60.1%, a US$116.4m share buyback, and recent selling that left the entry range at $22.75 to $23.75.

Inside the window from 2025-09-01 to 2025-11-30, BILI reached the $30.7 target in 38 days. It later peaked at $32.5 on 2025-10-29, a 39.7% gain. The signal ended at $26.61. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On November 13, 2025, Investor's Business Daily reported that Bilibili beat Q3 expectations, with earnings of 25 cents per share and revenue of $1.08 billion. The same report said gaming revenue fell 17% while ad revenue rose 23%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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