Track record · closed signal

Porch Group, Inc. (PRCH) — closed signal from September 1, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 30, 2025 — -42.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PRCH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$16.50 – $17.25Entry zone — fair-value band

$16.97Published — price the day we called it

$23.08Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$19.44Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$9.69Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 40% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-42.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+14.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$9.69

last close inside the window, ended November 30, 2025

Peak price

$19.44

peak on September 22, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published September 1, 2025

Predicted growth

+36%

over the measurement window

Target price

$23.08

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$16.50 – $17.25

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$16.97

published September 1, 2025

Confidence

62%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Porch is working through a recovery and execution is improving. On Aug 25, KBW lifted its target to $16, and on Aug 5 the company raised its 2025 sales and profit goals. The price trend looks healthy and trading interest is higher than normal, but the stock can swing a lot and the core business is still rebuilding. Consider buying on dips within the range as a short-term continuation idea.

Primary drivers

Company raised its 2025 sales and profit goals, giving investors more confidence
KBW increased its price target after updating its view of the business
Price trend looks firm, and the recent average price is rising steadily
Lots more people are buying than usual, showing strong interest in the stock

How it played out

PRCH: the target was never reached

Lyra published PRCH at 16.97 on 2025-09-01, with a short-term thesis for 36% growth. The thesis pointed to Porch raising its 2025 sales and profit goals, a KBW target increase to 16, a firm price trend, and higher than normal trading interest. It also noted volatility and a core business that was still rebuilding.

Inside the window, PRCH rose to 19.44 on 2025-09-22. That was a 14.5% peak gain, but it stayed below the 23.08 target. It never got there. By 2025-11-30, it ended at 9.69. The early move partly matched the setup, but the full thesis missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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