Track record · closed signal

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from September 1, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 30, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$95.57 Published $112.45 Target $92.73 Window close $98.22 Peak
$93.47 – $95.95Entry zone — fair-value band
$95.57Published — price the day we called it
$112.45Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$98.22Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$92.73Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 16% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$98.22
peak on November 12, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+2.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$92.73
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 1, 2025 – November 30, 2025

The thesis — published September 1, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$112.45
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$93.47 – $95.95
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$95.57
published September 1, 2025
Confidence
73%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Schwab looks ready for a rebound after a sharp pullback that seems overdone. Signs point to sellers losing steam, and two research firms recently repeated Buy ratings, noting strong new client money and profits per share expected to grow more than 40%. Veteran investor Bill Nygren holds a large stake, adding confidence. If the market stays steady, a rise toward earlier highs from this zone is reasonable.

Primary drivers

  • Sharp drop looks excessive, increasing chances the price snaps back soon.
  • Recent Buy ratings plus profits per share seen rising more than 40%.
  • Strong new client money and higher interest income support earnings.
  • Respected investor Bill Nygren owns it, which adds confidence.

How it played out

SCHW: the target was never reached

Lyra published SCHW at 95.57 on 2025-09-01 with an 18% expected rise. The thesis pointed to a sharp pullback that looked excessive, sellers losing steam, repeated Buy ratings, profits per share expected to grow more than 40%, strong new client money, higher interest income, and Bill Nygren's stake.

Inside the window, SCHW peaked at 98.22 on 2025-11-12, a 2.8% gain. It stayed below the 112.45 target and never reached it. By 2025-11-30, it ended at 92.73. The published rebound thesis only partially played out, because the stock rose modestly but missed the target and finished below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-16, Schwab reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of 1.31 per share and revenue of 6.14 billion. On 2025-11-06, Schwab said it would buy Forge Global in a deal valued at about 660 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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