Track record · closed signal

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) — closed signal from September 1, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 30, 2025 — +48.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

HMY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$12.90 – $13.39Entry zone — fair-value band

$13.23Published — price the day we called it

$16.60Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$22.25Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$19.66Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 18 days.

At window close

+48.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+68.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$19.66

last close inside the window, ended November 30, 2025

Peak price

$22.25

peak on October 16, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published September 1, 2025

Predicted growth

+26%

over the measurement window

Target price

$16.60

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$12.90 – $13.39

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$13.23

published September 1, 2025

Confidence

66%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Harmony looks promising because business results and news are strong. In early September, FY25 net income rose 75% and MAC Copper got the green light, while firm gold prices lifted shares on Aug 30. Price trends are still catching up, so consider buying in steps after a clear turn appears. Copper adds a second engine, and strong gold could help over the next 3 months, but swings are likely, so be patient.

Primary drivers

Profit for FY25 jumped 75%, showing the core business is improving.
Approval for MAC Copper adds a new growth path beyond gold mining.
Stronger gold prices can lift revenue and investor interest in the stock.
Early signs of a turn up are there, but we want clearer proof before sizing up.

How it played out

HMY: target reached in 18 days

Lyra published HMY at $13.23 on 2025-09-01 with a short-term view. The thesis expected 26% growth toward $16.60. It pointed to FY25 profit rising 75%, approval for MAC Copper, stronger gold prices, and early signs of a turn up that still needed clearer proof.

Inside the window from 2025-09-01 to 2025-11-30, the stock reached the target in 18 days. It later peaked at $22.25 on 2025-10-16, a 68.2% gain. It ended at $19.66, still above the target. The thesis played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All HMY signals