Track record · closed signal

Bilibili Inc. (BILI) — closed signal from August 31, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 29, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

BILI price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$23.26 Published $27.91 Target $26.61 Window close $32.50 Peak
$22.75 – $23.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$23.26Published — price the day we called it
$27.91Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$32.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$26.61Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 17 days.

Peak price
$32.50
peak on October 29, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+39.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$26.61
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
17
Window
August 31, 2025 – November 29, 2025

The thesis — published August 31, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$27.91
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$22.75 – $23.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$23.26
published August 31, 2025
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Bilibili is back to making money. Earnings per share beat estimates by 19 percent, mobile game sales jumped 60 percent, and the company spent $116M buying its own stock, which usually shows confidence. Price action is still early, so start building a position around $22.75-$23.50 and wait for clearer strength. If earnings quality keeps improving, the stock could be revalued over the next 1 to 3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Turning profitable again; earnings beat expectations by 19 percent
  • Mobile game sales rose 60 percent, lifting the overall business
  • $116M buyback suggests leaders believe shares are attractive
  • Signals are early; wait for real strength before getting aggressive

How it played out

BILI: target reached in 17 days

Lyra published BILI at $23.26 on August 31, 2025, with expected growth of 20 percent over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to a return to profitability, earnings per share beating estimates by 19 percent, mobile game sales rising 60 percent, and a $116M buyback. It also said the signal was early and strength still needed confirmation.

Inside the window, the stock reached the $27.91 target in 17 days. It later peaked at $32.50 on October 29, 2025, for a 39.7 percent gain. By November 29, 2025, it ended at $26.61. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On November 13, 2025, Investor's Business Daily reported that Bilibili's third-quarter earnings tripled to 25 cents per share and revenue rose 7% to $1.08 billion. The same report said gaming revenue fell 17%, while ad revenue rose 23%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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