Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from July 1, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 29, 2025 — +6.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$88.00 – $92.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$93.30Published — price the day we called it

$116.63Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$101.99Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$99.57Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 37% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+6.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+9.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+7.8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$99.57

last close inside the window, ended September 29, 2025

Peak price

$101.99

peak on September 22, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 1, 2025

Predicted growth

+25%

over the measurement window

Target price

$116.63

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$88.00 – $92.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$93.30

published July 1, 2025

Confidence

65%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber is making new price records after bookings grew more than 20 percent, it moved into grocery delivery, and Goldman Sachs named it a top pick. Excitement is high, but the share price looks stretched, so waiting until it drifts toward about $90, which matches the recent average price, may be wiser. If August results confirm stronger profits and rising ad sales, the stock could approach $110 in the next quarter.

Primary drivers

Goldman Sachs naming Uber a favorite draws more big-money investors.
Grocery service and ad sales add new income streams before August results.
Rides and deliveries grew over 20 percent, keeping growth rapid.
Pullbacks stop near the recent average price, but shares now look overbought.

How it played out

UBER: target was not reached

Lyra published UBER on 2025-07-01 at $93.30 with 25% expected growth. The thesis pointed to new price records, bookings growth of more than 20 percent, grocery delivery, ad sales, and Goldman Sachs naming Uber a top pick. It also said the share price looked stretched and preferred a drift toward about $90.

Inside the window, UBER rose but did not reach the $116.63 target. The peak was $101.99 on 2025-09-22, a 9.3% gain. It ended at $99.57 on 2025-09-29. The thesis partially played out because the stock rose, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-07-17, Uber announced a robotaxi partnership with Lucid and Nuro. On 2025-08-06, Uber reported second-quarter results and announced a $20 billion buyback plan.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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