Track record · closed signal

The Coca-Cola Company (KO) — closed signal from August 31, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 29, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

KO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$67.99 Published $73.03 Target $72.61 Window close $72.72 Peak
$66.04 – $67.49Entry zone — fair-value band
$67.99Published — price the day we called it
$73.03Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$72.72Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$72.61Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 78% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$72.72
peak on November 28, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$72.61
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
August 31, 2025 – November 29, 2025

The thesis — published August 31, 2025

Predicted growth
+9%
over the measurement window
Target price
$73.03
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$66.04 – $67.49
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$67.99
published August 31, 2025
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Coca-Cola's price has been fairly steady while interest looks strong, with lots more people buying than usual. Leaders are weighing a possible sale of Costa Coffee, which could free cash and refocus on higher-profit drinks. Berkshire's long-term stake signals quality. With growth modest, consider buying around $68 to $69.50 and watch for price strength to improve over the next 1 to 3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Possible Costa sale could free cash and sharpen focus on top-profit drinks
  • Reliable cash coming in, even when the economy slows or markets wobble
  • Big long-term investors back the company, which supports steady demand
  • Price has been steady and interest is rising, a helpful setup for buyers

How it played out

KO: thesis partly played out but target was missed

Lyra published KO on 2025-08-31 at $67.99. The thesis expected 9% growth over a short-term window, with a target of $73.03. It pointed to a possible Costa sale, reliable cash coming in, support from big long-term investors, and a steady price with rising interest.

Inside the window, KO rose but did not reach the target. The peak was $72.72 on 2025-11-28, with a 7% gain. It ended at $72.61 on 2025-11-29. The thesis partly played out because the price moved up, but it missed the target.

What happened during the window

On Oct. 21, 2025, Coca-Cola reported third-quarter revenue of $12.46 billion and adjusted earnings of $0.82 per share, according to MarketWatch. On the same date, Business Insider reported that CEO James Quincey said Costa Coffee had not worked out as expected and that Coca-Cola was reassessing its coffee business.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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