Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) — closed signal from August 31, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 29, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 19 days.
The thesis — published August 31, 2025
Harmony Gold mixes strong business results with a fair price, but the short-term price trend is choppy. Profits rose 75% and sales rose 24%. The MAC Copper deal adds assets and future options. Shares look attractive, yet the recent average price points down, so patience helps. Consider buying gradually between $12.90 and $13.40 and wait for signs the price is turning up; a 1 to 3 month rebound is possible if gold stays supportive.
Primary drivers
- FY25 profits jumped, showing better performance and cost control
- Buying MAC Copper adds assets and more ways to grow
- Shares look reasonably priced versus recent results and peers
- If gold prices rise, sales and profits can improve further
How it played out
HMY: target reached in 19 days
Lyra published HMY at $13.23 on 2025-08-31 with expected growth of 22%. The thesis pointed to profits rising 75%, sales rising 24%, the MAC Copper deal adding assets and future options, reasonable valuation versus recent results and peers, and possible support if gold prices rose.
Inside the window, the stock reached the $16.07 target in 19 days. It kept rising to a peak of $22.25 on 2025-10-16, a 68.2% gain. By 2025-11-29, it ended at $19.66. The thesis played out and exceeded the target.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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