Track record · closed signal

PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) — closed signal from August 31, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 29, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

PEP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$145.78 Published $158.70 Target $147.30 Window close $154.76 Peak
$141.39 – $143.79Entry zone — fair-value band
$145.78Published — price the day we called it
$158.70Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$154.76Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$147.30Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 56% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$154.76
peak on September 2, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+6.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$147.30
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
August 31, 2025 – November 29, 2025

The thesis — published August 31, 2025

Predicted growth
+11%
over the measurement window
Target price
$158.70
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$141.39 – $143.79
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$145.78
published August 31, 2025
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

PepsiCo looks like a steady stock that may bounce after a recent pullback. Many buyers have stepped in lately, hinting the drop went too far. The added $585M stake in Celsius pushes Pepsi further into fast-growing energy and wellness drinks, giving growth beyond chips and soda. As interest rates calm, income-focused investors value its long record of rising dividends. A buy near 147-149 aims for a 1-3 month return toward its usual range.

Primary drivers

  • Price fell hard recently; steady buying hints at a short-term rebound
  • Bigger Celsius stake expands energy and wellness drink opportunities
  • Reliable dividends attract income investors as interest rates settle
  • Famous brands support customer loyalty and keep sentiment constructive

How it played out

PEP: target stayed out of reach

Lyra published PEP on 2025-08-31 at 145.78. The thesis expected 11% growth toward 158.7 over a short-term window. It pointed to a recent pullback, steady buying, the added $585M Celsius stake, reliable dividends as interest rates settled, and famous brands. The buy area was described as near 147-149.

Inside the window, PEP rose quickly but did not reach 158.7. The peak was 154.76 on 2025-09-02, with a 6.2% gain. It ended at 147.3 on 2025-11-29. The thesis partly played out because the stock bounced, but the target stayed out of reach.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-09, PepsiCo reported third-quarter results. AP reported revenue of $23.94 billion, a 3% decline in North American food business revenue, and adjusted earnings per share of $2.29. The same report said Steve Schmitt would become CFO, succeeding Jamie Caulfield.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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