Track record · closed signal

Citigroup Inc. (C) — closed signal from August 31, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 29, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

C price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$96.00 Published $112.61 Target $103.60 Window close $104.96 Peak
$93.88 – $95.85Entry zone — fair-value band
$96.00Published — price the day we called it
$112.61Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$104.96Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$103.60Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 52% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$104.96
peak on September 23, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+9.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$103.60
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
August 31, 2025 – November 29, 2025

The thesis — published August 31, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$112.61
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$93.88 – $95.85
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$96.00
published August 31, 2025
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Citigroup's stock has climbed 58.9 percent over the past year, yet a fair value estimate around $121.60 suggests more room to grow from today's price. Regulators have clarified how much capital it must hold, and management is cutting costs, which reduces uncertainty. Buying interest has been strong lately. Over the next 1 to 3 months, consider adding on pullbacks as the rerating story continues.

Primary drivers

  • Shares trade below a fair value estimate of about $121.60, leaving upside
  • Recent demand has been stronger than usual, pointing to continued momentum
  • Rules on required capital are clearer; cost cuts make execution more reliable
  • Investor mood has improved as the turnaround plan shows progress

How it played out

C: the thesis only partly played out

Lyra published C at $96 on 2025-08-31, with an expected 18% gain over the short term. The thesis pointed to shares trading below a fair value estimate of about $121.60, stronger recent demand, clearer capital rules, cost cuts, and better investor mood around the turnaround plan.

Inside the 2025-08-31 to 2025-11-29 window, C rose, but it did not reach the $112.61 target. The peak was $104.96 on 2025-09-23, a 9.3% gain. It ended at $103.60. The thesis partly played out, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-09, Citi said it had rejected a Grupo Mexico bid for Banamex and kept its planned listing path. On 2025-10-14, Citigroup reported third quarter results, and its markets business produced $5.6 billion in revenue.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All C signals