The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from August 31, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 29, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 14% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published August 31, 2025
Schwab looks beaten down and due for a bounce, and both the mood around the stock and the company's basics point the same way. A major bank lifted its goal price to $112, citing stronger profits from returning cash to shareholders and better margins. If interest rates stay steady, its trading and banking arms should earn more over the next 3 months. Start small, and add only if momentum clearly improves.
Primary drivers
- Stock looks overly beaten down, making a near-term bounce more likely
- Big bank raised its target to $112, expecting stronger profit margins
- Trading and banking profits can improve if interest rates stay steady
- Improving investor mood and solid business help the recovery case
How it played out
SCHW: the target was not reached
Lyra published SCHW at 95.57 on 2025-08-31 with 20% expected growth and a 114.36 target. The thesis said the stock looked beaten down and due for a bounce. It pointed to a major bank lifting its goal price to 112, stronger profit margins, trading and banking profits if rates stayed steady, and improving investor mood.
Inside the 2025-08-31 to 2025-11-29 window, SCHW peaked at 98.22 on 2025-11-12, a 2.8% gain. It never reached 114.36. The stock ended at 92.73, below the publication price. The thesis missed the target and only partially played out.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-16, The Wall Street Journal reported that Charles Schwab posted third-quarter adjusted earnings of 1.31 per share and revenue of 6.14 billion. On 2025-11-14, Barron's reported that Schwab recorded 44.4 billion in core net new assets for October.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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