Track record · closed signal

Porch Group, Inc. (PRCH) — closed signal from August 30, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 28, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

PRCH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$16.50 – $17.25Entry zone — fair-value band

$16.97Published — price the day we called it

$23.76Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$19.44Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$9.69Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 36% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$19.44

peak on September 22, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+14.5%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$9.69

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

August 30, 2025 – November 28, 2025

The thesis — published August 30, 2025

Predicted growth

+40%

over the measurement window

Target price

$23.76

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$16.50 – $17.25

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$16.97

published August 30, 2025

Confidence

61%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Porch Group is a smaller company that just surprised with stronger results, so interest jumped. Many more people are buying than usual and the price trend is up, but the stock can swing a lot. The company beat in Q2, raised goals for 2025, and is shifting to a lighter, less costly model. A major bank set a $16 target this month. Consider buying on pullbacks and keep risk tight for the next 3 months.

Primary drivers

Raised future targets; profit quality improving and starting to scale.
Price trend is strong, recent average price is rising, and buying is heavy.
Shifting to a lighter model that needs less cash, lowering costs and risk.
Trading can be thin, and management must deliver; risks are higher.

How it played out

PRCH: the target was not reached

Lyra published PRCH at $16.97 on 2025-08-30 for a short-term window ending 2025-11-28. The thesis expected 40% growth toward $23.76. It pointed to stronger Q2 results, raised 2025 goals, heavier buying, an uptrend, and a shift to a lighter, less costly model. It also noted thin trading and higher execution risk.

Inside the window, PRCH rose to a peak of $19.44 on 2025-09-22, a 14.5% gain. That stayed below the $23.76 target. It never got there. By 2025-11-28, the stock ended at $9.69. The thesis partially played out early, then missed by the close.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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