Track record · closed signal

Bilibili Inc. (BILI) — closed signal from August 30, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 28, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

BILI price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$23.26 Published $29.31 Target $26.61 Window close $32.50 Peak
$23.00 – $23.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$23.26Published — price the day we called it
$29.31Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$32.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$26.61Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 33 days.

Peak price
$32.50
peak on October 29, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+39.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$26.61
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
33
Window
August 30, 2025 – November 28, 2025

The thesis — published August 30, 2025

Predicted growth
+26%
over the measurement window
Target price
$29.31
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$23.00 – $23.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$23.26
published August 30, 2025
Confidence
61%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

After its latest results, the company showed solid progress: sales rose 20 percent and profit per share was 19 percent better than expected. Yet the stock fell, which can offer a better entry. If user activity stays strong and the platform keeps improving how it makes money, the shares could recover over the next three months. We plan to buy in stages to handle normal swings.

Primary drivers

  • Sales beat and profit per share beat expectations, a positive surprise
  • Price looks oversold now, making a short-term bounce more likely soon
  • Overall trend is weak, so we want proof of strength before adding more
  • China rules and currency swings can make the stock more jumpy day to day

How it played out

BILI: target reached in 33 days

Lyra published BILI at 23.26 on 2025-08-30 with 26% expected growth and a 29.31 target. The thesis pointed to sales up 20 percent, profit per share 19 percent better than expected, a stock drop after results, strong user activity, better monetization, weak trend, China rules, and currency swings.

Inside the 2025-08-30 to 2025-11-28 window, BILI reached the target in 33 days. It later peaked at 32.50 on 2025-10-29, with a 39.7% peak gain. It ended at 26.61. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-13, Investors.com reported that Bilibili's Q3 earnings tripled to 25 cents per share and revenue rose 7% to $1.08 billion. The same article said advertising revenue rose 23%, while gaming revenue fell 17%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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