Track record · closed signal

PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) — closed signal from August 30, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 28, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

PEP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$141.39 – $143.31Entry zone — fair-value band

$145.78Published — price the day we called it

$157.27Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$154.76Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$147.30Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 62% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$154.76

peak on September 2, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+6.2%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$147.30

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

August 30, 2025 – November 28, 2025

The thesis — published August 30, 2025

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$157.27

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$141.39 – $143.31

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$145.78

published August 30, 2025

Confidence

65%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

PepsiCo looks like a steady, dividend-paying stock that could climb over the next three months. The recent average price is edging up, but momentum is still soft, so buying in steps makes sense. PepsiCo increased its stake in Celsius, and Celsius gained Rockstar rights in the U.S., improving their energy-drink push. Reliable cash flow and lots more people buying than usual support a careful, gradual advance.

Primary drivers

Reliable dividend and steady cash flow help limit downside risk
Shares look ready to turn up, and the recent average price is rising
Deeper partnership with Celsius expands PepsiCo's energy-drink reach
Lots more people are buying than usual, a positive demand signal

How it played out

PEP: the target was not reached

Lyra published PEP at 145.78 on 2025-08-30 with a short-term thesis for 10% growth. The thesis pointed to a steady dividend, reliable cash flow, a recent average price that was edging up, soft momentum that favored buying in steps, the Celsius and Rockstar energy-drink partnership, and more buying than usual.

Inside the window, PEP peaked at 154.76 on 2025-09-02, a 6.2% gain. That stayed below the 157.27 target. It never got there. By 2025-11-28, the stock ended at 147.30. The thesis partially played out: the price rose, but not enough to reach the published target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-09, PepsiCo reported third-quarter revenue of $23.94 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $2.29. It also said Jamie Caulfield would retire as CFO in November and Steve Schmitt would succeed him.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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