Track record · closed signal

Pfizer Inc. (PFE) — closed signal from August 30, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 28, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

PFE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$24.33 Published $27.02 Target $25.74 Window close $27.21 Peak
$23.66 – $24.14Entry zone — fair-value band
$24.33Published — price the day we called it
$27.02Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$27.21Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$25.74Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$27.21
peak on October 3, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+11.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$25.74
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
Window
August 30, 2025 – November 28, 2025

The thesis — published August 30, 2025

Predicted growth
+13%
over the measurement window
Target price
$27.02
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$23.66 – $24.14
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$24.33
published August 30, 2025
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Pfizer looks like a steady income pick that may bounce back toward its usual range. Recent trading hints sellers are tiring and more buyers are stepping in, and the stock looks cheap compared to its own past. The FDA just cleared an updated COVID shot for people at higher risk. The dividend yield is about 6.8 percent. Together, these support a calm, gradual recovery over the next 3 months as mood improves.

Primary drivers

  • A high dividend and a long record of paying it add steady income.
  • Selling looks exhausted, and trading is heavier than usual.
  • New FDA clearance helps the COVID vaccine line look durable.
  • Shares look cheap versus the company's own past pricing.

How it played out

PFE: target price reached, gain stayed under 13 percent

Lyra published PFE at 24.33 on 2025-08-30 as a short-term recovery thesis. It expected 13 percent growth toward 27.02. The thesis pointed to a high dividend, selling that looked exhausted, heavier trading, FDA clearance for an updated COVID shot for higher-risk people, and shares that looked cheap versus Pfizer's own past pricing.

Inside the window, PFE peaked at 27.21 on 2025-10-03, above the 27.02 target. The peak gain was 11.8 percent, below the 13 percent expectation. It ended the window at 25.74. The price move partly played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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