Track record · closed signal

Citigroup Inc. (C) — closed signal from August 30, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 28, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

C price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$96.00 Published $112.61 Target $103.60 Window close $104.96 Peak
$93.88 – $95.85Entry zone — fair-value band
$96.00Published — price the day we called it
$112.61Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$104.96Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$103.60Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 52% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$104.96
peak on September 23, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+9.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$103.60
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
August 30, 2025 – November 28, 2025

The thesis — published August 30, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$112.61
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$93.88 – $95.85
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$96.00
published August 30, 2025
Confidence
64%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Citigroup looks like a turnaround at a still fair price. The trend is improving, with signs that lots more people are buying than usual and the recent average price is rising. Even after a 58.9 percent rise over the past year, many see the stock as cheap. Cutting 20,000 jobs could save $2-$2.5B a year and lift profits, and big investment firms remain supportive.

Primary drivers

  • More buyers than usual plus an improving trend signal a supportive setup.
  • Planned job cuts aim to save $2-$2.5B yearly, likely lifting profits.
  • Even after a strong year, many see shares as cheap with room to rise further.
  • Large investment firms remain committed, providing steady demand for shares.

How it played out

C: the target was not reached

Lyra published C at $96 on 2025-08-30 with an expected 18 percent gain. The thesis pointed to more buyers than usual, an improving trend, planned job cuts aimed at $2-$2.5B in yearly savings, a still fair price after a 58.9 percent rise over the past year, and support from large investment firms.

Inside the window, the stock rose to $104.96 on 2025-09-23. That was a 9.3 percent peak gain, but it stayed below the $112.61 target. By 2025-11-28 it ended at $103.60. The thesis partly played out on direction, but missed on the target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-14, Financial News reported that Citigroup's markets business generated $5.6bn in third-quarter revenue, up 15 percent from a year earlier. The same report said net income rose to $3.8bn from $3.2bn.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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