Track record · closed signal

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) — closed signal from August 30, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 28, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

HMY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$12.90 – $13.39Entry zone — fair-value band

$13.23Published — price the day we called it

$16.34Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$22.25Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$19.66Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 20 days.

Peak price

$22.25

peak on October 16, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+68.2%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$19.66

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

Window

August 30, 2025 – November 28, 2025

The thesis — published August 30, 2025

Predicted growth

+24%

over the measurement window

Target price

$16.34

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$12.90 – $13.39

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$13.23

published August 30, 2025

Confidence

68%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Harmony Gold looks interesting because the business is doing well while the share price looks washed out. Investors approved buying MAC Copper, and cash the company can use after bills hit a record for FY25, up 54 percent. Short-term price signals say the stock has fallen hard, which can be a chance to buy. If gold prices stop sliding or hold steady, the next three months could offer solid upside. We plan to build a position gradually and wait for signs of strength.

Primary drivers

Record yearly cash generated, helping pay down debt and strengthen finances
Buying MAC Copper adds new mines and resources to grow future production
Short-term price looks washed out, which often sets up a rebound opportunity
Earnings can rise quickly if gold holds firm or climbs, boosting the stock

How it played out

HMY: target reached in 20 days

Lyra published HMY at 13.23 on 2025-08-30 with a short-term view. The thesis expected 24% growth to 16.34. It pointed to record yearly cash generated, the MAC Copper purchase, a washed-out short-term price setup, and earnings sensitivity if gold held firm or climbed.

Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 20 days. It later peaked at 22.25 on 2025-10-16, with a 68.2% peak gain. It ended the window at 19.66 on 2025-11-28. The published thesis played out. It got there, then stayed above the target at the close.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All HMY signals