Bilibili Inc. (BILI) — closed signal from August 29, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 27, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 41 days.
The thesis — published August 29, 2025
Bilibili looks ready for a recovery backed by real results. News from Aug 22-24 showed it beat expectations on both sales and profits, with sales up 20% and earnings stronger than forecast, helped by ads and games. The price trend has been weak, but lots more people are buying than usual, which could lift it over the next 0-3 months. We keep it on Watch due to China policy risk and want the price over its recent average before adding.
Primary drivers
- Q2 beat: sales up 20% and profit above forecasts, boosting trust.
- Weak price, but trading jumped, hinting at a near-term rebound.
- Ads and mobile games are lifting profits as the business scales.
- Policy shifts in China mean we need proof of strength first.
How it played out
BILI: target reached in 41 days
Lyra published BILI at $23.17 on 2025-08-29, with expected growth of 28% and a target of $29.66. The thesis pointed to a Q2 beat, sales up 20%, profit above forecasts, stronger ads and mobile games, heavier trading after weak price action, and China policy risk as a reason to wait for proof of strength.
Inside the window from 2025-08-29 to 2025-11-27, the stock reached the target in 41 days. It peaked at $32.50 on 2025-10-29, with a peak gain of 40.3%. It ended at $26.41. The thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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